CV Central - 3/14/2020 - "What To Expect in the Coming Days"
For the thirtieth episode, we take stock of what we have to expect as the first heavy blast of the coronavirus outbreak is hitting the West beyond ravaged Italy. A story from Hong Kong talks about lost lung capacity from survivors who at least, in the short term, seem likely not to be immediately reinfected based on best research. The war against Covid is furious in Italy, and we share a personal narrative of what it was like seeing the world a person knew disappear in two weeks to the novel reality of the coronavirus contagion. Modeling explains why we cannot simply flatten the curve, but must change how we live for a time - potentially quite a while - to overcome this by containing ourselves. Against that backdrop, we see policy leaders from the President onward still reacting and taking minor steps against a problem more major than they seem able to comprehend. The DOD is preparing to shut down travel for sixty days for military personnel and families. We should probably be thinking no less as this weekend may be the last chance for travel and resupply for some time. If not, then it only means the price we will all pay will be that much worse in terms of victims who ultimately will succumb to Covid-19.
Hong Kong recovered patients have permanent lung damage in some cases: https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3074988/coronavirus-some-recovered-patients-may-have
Patients testing as reinfected might be due to rush to release patients or inaccurate testing as opposed to reinfection: https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-13/china-japan-korea-coronavirus-reinfection-test-positive
Coronavirus like a world war for Italian doctors with soaring death toll: https://nypost.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-in-italy-is-like-a-world-war-as-death-toll-soars/
Italian shares real-life experience of how quickly Covid changed everything: https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fhxap2/from_an_italian_to_the_rest_of_the_world_you_have/
Contain, not flatten, or death toll will spike https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727
President Trump holds press conference about improving testing for coronavirus: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-hold-friday-afternoon-press-conference-coronavirus-n1157981
DOD bans domestic travel for families and personnel until May 11: https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/03/14/dod-bans-all-domestic-travel-for-troops-employees-in-response-to-coronavirus-threat/
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