CV Central - 5/12/2020 - "Revisiting Models - Transmission Rates and Herd Immunity"
In Episode 67, we look at the most updated numbers, modeling, and assumptions about how to work out the epidemiological response moving forward. With many more people having experienced Covid, we still remain at just the beginning of this outbreak, with far more having kept apart, and as we begin reopening in America, the question of what launching the transmission rate, R, might mean gets tackled here. We look at how much mobility might impact the reduction, what non-pharmaceutical interventions would prove necessary, the clear and not so clear risks of herd immunity, and the question whether a vaccine is even possible. There are no clear answers, but learning to ask the questions more clearly is what we must do rather than stumble forward blindly as we seek to determine which variables are crucial.
Live tracking numbers from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
Places opening up show the most troubling trendlines: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1204751
Nursing homes have many cases and most deaths: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/09/us/coronavirus-cases-nursing-homes-us.html
The statistical reason you need a R value well below 1 during an outbreak: https://theprint.in/world/world-is-talking-in-r0-values-and-infection-rates-but-coronavirus-doesnt-care-for-such-data/419481/
Study estimates every 10% reduction in mobility leads to a .04 - .09 reduction in R value: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.06.20093039v1
Pandemic just beginning as we have only seen a small number infected thus far: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/05/11/coronavirus-expert-michael-osterholm-warns-virus-spread-far-from-over/3108333001/
Understanding herd immunity, how it is reached, and the question about whether it is even possible: https://www.thecut.com/2020/05/herd-immunity-coronavirus.html
UK PM Johnson admits vaccine solution may never come as UK recalibrates for long-haul: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-uk-vaccine-lockdown-face-masks-boris-johnson-a9508511.html
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